Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Final

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 3, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Casper Ruud		Jack Draper

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.85	1.45	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.47
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	2.81	1.45	Watch
	2.9	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.82)	1.42 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
32.8%

Jack Draper
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

66.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

66.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Jack Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39%	0%	61%

Casper Ruud - Jack Draper Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 15 - 37.5%). Draper will win (votes: 25 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Draper: 47.5% – 77.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Draper (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Draper (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jack Draper will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Draper (votes: 13 - 92.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 15. Draper is ranked ATP: 6.

Both players have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

In this match, Draper is a strong favorite.

We predict that Draper will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Madrid
02.05.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
01.05.25	Casper Ruud - Daniil Medvedev	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
27.04.25	Sebastian Korda - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
25.04.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWWW
- Jack Draper
ATP Madrid
02.05.25	Jack Draper - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
01.05.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.04.25	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Berrettini	Berrettini M. retired ✺
26.04.25	Jack Draper - Tallon Griekspoor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWW?W

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