Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday


	Jack Draper		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.29	3.75	Watch
	1.28	3.6	Watch
	1.26	3.85	Watch
	1.26	4.25
	1.26	3.75	Watch
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.26	3.89	Watch
	1.26	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.33)	3.81 ↑ (3.37)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Draper
75%

Luciano Darderi
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.6%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.1%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	0%	25.9%

Jack Draper - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Draper will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Darderi will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Draper: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4 Games - Darderi (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -3.5 Games - Draper (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Darderi (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jack Draper will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Draper (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Darderi (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Draper is ranked ATP: 5. Darderi is ranked ATP: 46.

Draper is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Darderi's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Draper may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Draper is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Draper won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Draper
ATP Madrid
04.05.25	Casper Ruud - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
02.05.25	Jack Draper - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
01.05.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.04.25	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Berrettini	Berrettini M. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWW?
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Roma
07.05.25	Bu Yunchaokete - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.05.25	Ignacio Buse - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Luciano Darderi	Darderi L. retired ✺
24.04.25	Quentin Halys - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
18.04.25	Luciano Darderi - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WL?WL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Vienna
24.10.24	Luciano Darderi - Jack Draper	0:2

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