Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Jakub Mensik		Ethan Quinn

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.46	2.75	Watch
	1.46	2.91
	1.46	2.71	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.44	2.5	Watch
	1.45	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.5)	2.75 ↑ (2.63)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jakub Mensik
65.6%

Ethan Quinn
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.5%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jakub Mensik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Ethan Quinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ethan Quinn than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	0%	19.2%

Jakub Mensik - Ethan Quinn Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -6.5 Games - Mensik (3.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Quinn (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 37.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Sets - Mensik (3.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jakub Mensik will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Mensik (votes: 16 - 84.2%). Quinn (votes: 3 - 15.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Mensik is ranked ATP: 17. Quinn is ranked ATP: 80.

Mensik has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Quinn's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Quinn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mensik is considered a favorite.

We predict that Mensik will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mensik won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.68%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Ethan Quinn - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 36.32%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jakub Mensik
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Rafael Jodar	3:0 ✺
19.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
ATP Auckland
16.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWW
- Ethan Quinn
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Ethan Quinn	0:3 ✺
19.01.26	Ethan Quinn - Tallon Griekspoor	3:0 ✺
ATP Adelaide
13.01.26	Ethan Quinn - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
ATP Brisbane
03.01.26	Ethan Quinn - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
02.01.26	Ethan Quinn - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
10.08.25	Jakub Mensik - Ethan Quinn	2:0
ATP Madrid
25.04.25	Ethan Quinn - Jakub Mensik	0:2

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