Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:05	ESPN
Belgium	01:05	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	01:05	HBO Max
Brazil	21:05	ESPN
Bulgaria	02:05	HBO Max
Canada	19:05	RDS App
Colombia	19:05	ESPN
Croatia	01:05	HBO Max
Czech Republic	01:05	HBO Max
Denmark	01:05	HBO Max
Finland	02:05	HBO Max
France	01:05	HBO Max
Hungary	01:05	HBO Max
Mexico	18:05	ESPN
Moldova	02:05	HBO Max
Montenegro	01:05	HBO Max
Netherlands	01:05	HBO Max
North Macedonia	01:05	HBO Max
Norway	01:05	HBO Max
Peru	19:05	ESPN
Poland	01:05	HBO Max
Romania	02:05	HBO Max
Serbia	01:05	HBO Max
Slovenia	01:05	HBO Max
Spain	01:05	HBO Max
Sweden	01:05	HBO Max
United Kingdom	00:05	Discovery+
Usa	19:05	ESPN USA
Venezuela	20:05	ESPN


	Jakub Mensik		Rafael Jodar

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.49	2.65	Watch
	1.56	2.44	Watch
	1.57	2.38
	1.53	2.54	Watch
	1.5	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.43)	2.56 ↓ (2.74)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jakub Mensik
62.8%

Rafael Jodar
37.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.7%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Jakub Mensik - Rafael Jodar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Mensik (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jakub Mensik will win (27 of 33 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.66% – 94.98%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Mensik (votes: 17 - 89.5%). Jodar (votes: 2 - 10.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Mensik is ranked ATP: 17. Jodar is ranked ATP: 150.

Mensik has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Jodar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Jodar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mensik is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Mensik will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.73%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jakub Mensik
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
ATP Auckland
16.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Jakub Mensik	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWW
- Rafael Jodar
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Rei Sakamoto - Rafael Jodar	2:3 ✺
14.01.26	Rafael Jodar - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Chris Rodesch - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Li Tu - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.01.26	Alexander Blockx - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Paris
02.11.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Rafael Jodar	✺

Jakub Mensik - Rafael Jodar