Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Bulgaria	HBO Max
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United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Jakub Mensik		Rafael Jodar

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.49	2.65	Watch
	1.56	2.44	Watch
	1.57	2.38
	1.53	2.54	Watch
	1.5	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.43)	2.56 ↓ (2.74)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jakub Mensik
62.8%

Rafael Jodar
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Jakub Mensik - Rafael Jodar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Mensik (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jakub Mensik will win (27 of 33 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.66% – 94.98%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Mensik (votes: 17 - 89.5%). Jodar (votes: 2 - 10.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Mensik is ranked ATP: 17. Jodar is ranked ATP: 150.

Mensik has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Jodar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Jodar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mensik is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Mensik will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.73%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jakub Mensik
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
ATP Auckland
16.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Jakub Mensik	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWW
- Rafael Jodar
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Rei Sakamoto - Rafael Jodar	2:3 ✺
14.01.26	Rafael Jodar - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Chris Rodesch - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Li Tu - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.01.26	Alexander Blockx - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWL

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