Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham - Qualification, grass - Semi-finals

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday


	Jan Choinski		Alibek Kachmazov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.15	1.6	Watch
			Watch
	2.15	1.69
			Watch
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.14	1.66
	1.68	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.55)	1.72 ↓ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
45.7%

Alibek Kachmazov
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jan Choinski's form might have worsened.

Alibek Kachmazov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alibek Kachmazov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jan Choinski, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alibek Kachmazov than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alibek Kachmazov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	0%	69.2%

Jan Choinski - Alibek Kachmazov Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Choinski will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Kachmazov will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kachmazov: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Choinski (votes: 2 - 50%). Kachmazov (votes: 2 - 50%).

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 213. Kachmazov is ranked ATP: 169.

Choinski is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kachmazov has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Choinski may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Choinski won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Alibek Kachmazov - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 40.9%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
12.06.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
10.06.25	Jan Choinski - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
02.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
20.05.25	Giulio Zeppieri - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.05.25	Jan Choinski - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLL
- Alibek Kachmazov
ATP Roland Garros
20.05.25	Alibek Kachmazov - Timofey Skatov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.05.25	Ilia Simakin - Alibek Kachmazov	2:0 ✺
05.05.25	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
03.05.25	Alibek Kachmazov - Tristan Schoolkate	1:2 ✺
02.05.25	Alibek Kachmazov - James McCabe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
30.10.23	Alibek Kachmazov - Jan Choinski	2:1

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