Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Troyes, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Marco Trungelliti		Jan Choinski

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.78	2.12
			Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.71	2.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.79)	2.06 ↑ (1.95)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
54.6%

Jan Choinski
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Marco Trungelliti - Jan Choinski Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Trungelliti will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Choinski will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Choinski: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jan Choinski will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 149. Choinski is ranked ATP: 200.

Trungelliti is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Choinski has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Trungelliti may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trungelliti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
04.07.25	Marco Trungelliti - Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	2:0 ✺
03.07.25	Marco Trungelliti - Matteo Martineau	2:1 ✺
01.07.25	Marco Trungelliti - Florent Bax	2:1 ✺
30.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Pedro Boscardin Dias	Canceled ✺
ATP Wimbledon
25.06.25	Jaime Faria - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWW?L
- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
04.07.25	Jan Choinski - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
02.07.25	Jan Choinski - Branko Djuric	2:0 ✺
30.06.25	Jan Choinski - Theo Papamalamis	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
23.06.25	Jan Choinski - Mark Lajal	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Jaime Faria - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Jan Choinski	2:1

Marco Trungelliti - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide