Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday


	Jan Choinski		Andrea Pellegrino

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
			Watch
	2.05	1.65	Watch
	2.2	1.7
	1.89	1.84	Watch
	2.12	1.67	Watch
	1.99	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2)	1.71 ↓ (1.74)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
45.4%

Andrea Pellegrino
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Andrea Pellegrino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Jan Choinski - Andrea Pellegrino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 227. Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 135.

Choinski is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Pellegrino has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Choinski may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Choinski won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Jan Choinski - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.52%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
21.09.25	Jan Choinski - Vit Kopriva	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Jan Choinski - Zdenek Kolar	2:0 ✺
19.09.25	Jan Choinski - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
18.09.25	Marko Topo - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
15.09.25	Jan Choinski - Vitaliy Sachko	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWW
- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Challenger
12.09.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	0:2 ✺
11.09.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Rudolf Molleker	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Mateusz Lange	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Andrea Pellegrino	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Stefano Travaglia - Andrea Pellegrino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.10.23	Andrea Pellegrino - Jan Choinski	Pellegrino A. retired
04.10.23	Andrea Pellegrino - Jan Choinski	2:1
29.04.19	Andrea Pellegrino - Jan Choinski	Choinski J. retired

Jan Choinski - Andrea Pellegrino: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide