Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Christian Garin		Jan Choinski

	1	2
			Watch
	1.27	3.25	Watch
	1.35	3.57
	1.34	3.16	Watch
	1.33	3.25
	1.33	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.48)	3.26 ↑ (2.53)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
71.1%

Jan Choinski
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christian Garin's performance.

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jan Choinski might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christian Garin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jan Choinski could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.2%	0%	4.8%

Christian Garin - Jan Choinski Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Garin (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Christian Garin will win (19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 104. Choinski is ranked ATP: 122.

Garin has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Choinski's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Garin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Garin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Garin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Roma
04.05.26	Christian Garin - Moez Echargui	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Christian Garin - Nuno Borges	1:2 ✺
28.04.26	Moez Echargui - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Christian Garin - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	Christian Garin - Martin Damm	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL
- Jan Choinski
ATP Roma
04.05.26	Dusan Lajovic - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Laslo Djere - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
28.04.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Jan Choinski - Marc-Andrea Huesler	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.10.24	Jan Choinski - Christian Garin	1:2

Christian Garin - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide