Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Madrid 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	12:05	Veikkaus TV


	Jan-Lennard Struff		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.75	2.05	Watch
	1.7	2.17
	1.74	2.24
	1.71	2.14	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.74	2.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.43)	2.14 ↑ (1.61)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan-Lennard Struff
55.5%

Alex Michelsen
44.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.8%

60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan-Lennard Struff has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jan-Lennard Struff's performance.

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex Michelsen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan-Lennard Struff than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jan-Lennard Struff that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Michelsen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Jan Lennard Struff - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Struff will win (votes: 18 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Struff: 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Struff is ranked ATP: 81. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 37.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 60.17%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan-Lennard Struff
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Alexandre Muller - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Francisco Cerundolo	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Darwin Blanch - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	James Duckworth - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 W?LLL
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Federico Cina	Canceled ✺
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
02.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
24.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 ?LLWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan-Lennard Struff
ATP Basel
29.10.26	Novak Djokovic - Jan-Lennard Struff	✺
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Basel
29.10.26	Alex Michelsen - Arthur Fils	✺

Jan-Lennard Struff - Alex Michelsen