Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Houston, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 April 2026, Thursday


	Alex Michelsen		Alexei Popyrin

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.52	2.35	Watch
	1.53	2.65
	1.5	2.51	Watch
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.5	2.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.87)	2.53 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
62.4%

Alexei Popyrin
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex Michelsen's performance.

Alexei Popyrin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexei Popyrin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Michelsen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexei Popyrin than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexei Popyrin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.5%	0%	4.5%

Alex Michelsen - Alexei Popyrin Predictions

Users Predictions: Alex Michelsen will win (42 of 44 users predict this - 95.45%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex Michelsen will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 35. Popyrin is ranked ATP: 45.

Michelsen is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Popyrin has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Michelsen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Michelsen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Alexei Popyrin - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Houston
31.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
24.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
23.03.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Alex Michelsen	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Cameron Norrie	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Alex Michelsen - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWWW
- Alexei Popyrin
ATP Houston
31.03.26	Alexei Popyrin - Patrick Kypson	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Marin Cilic - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Jenson Brooksby - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Alexei Popyrin - Kamil Majchrzak	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLW

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