Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 May 2025, Monday


	Jasmine Paolini		Jelena Ostapenko

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.65	2.18
	1.63	2.29	Watch
	1.71	2.27
	1.63	2.27	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.68	2.2	Watch
	1.6	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.83)	2.23 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jasmine Paolini
57.5%

Jelena Ostapenko
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jasmine Paolini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jasmine Paolini's performance.

Jelena Ostapenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jelena Ostapenko might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jasmine Paolini that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelena Ostapenko than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jelena Ostapenko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Jasmine Paolini - Jelena Ostapenko Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Paolini will win (votes: 12 - 40%). Ostapenko will win (votes: 18 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ostapenko: 42.5% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Ostapenko (votes: 12 - 70.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 Games - Paolini (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Ostapenko (votes: 12 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paolini is ranked WTA: 5. Ostapenko is ranked WTA: 18.

Paolini has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ostapenko is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Paolini might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Paolini won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Roma
10.05.25	Jasmine Paolini - Ons Jabeur	2:0 ✺
08.05.25	Jasmine Paolini - Lulu Sun	2:0 ✺
WTA Madrid
27.04.25	Maria Sakkari - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
25.04.25	Katie Boulter - Jasmine Paolini	0:2 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
20.04.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWL
- Jelena Ostapenko
WTA Roma
10.05.25	Jelena Ostapenko - Laura Siegemund	Ostapenko J. walkover ✺
08.05.25	Jelena Ostapenko - Rebecca Sramkova	2:1 ✺
WTA Madrid
24.04.25	Anastasija Sevastova - Jelena Ostapenko	2:0 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
21.04.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Jelena Ostapenko	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Jelena Ostapenko	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 ?WLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Doha
12.02.25	Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini	2:0
WTA US Open
28.08.23	Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini	2:1

Jasmine Paolini - Jelena Ostapenko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide