Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Germany	Laola1


	Jasmine Paolini		Sorana Cirstea

	1	2
	2.50	1.53	Watch
	2.25	1.62
	2.43	1.56
	2.56	1.59
	2.49	1.56	Watch
	2.45	1.58
	2.39	1.59	Watch
	2.45	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.4)	1.57 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jasmine Paolini
39.2%

Sorana Cirstea
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

61.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jasmine Paolini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Sorana Cirstea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sorana Cirstea than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Jasmine Paolini - Sorana Cirstea Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Paolini will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Cirstea will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paolini: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Paolini (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Paolini (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 19.5 Games - over (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jasmine Paolini will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Cirstea (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paolini is ranked WTA: 21. Cirstea is ranked WTA: 17.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Cirstea could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Cirstea will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paolini won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jasmine Paolini
WTA US Open
02.09.26	Jasmine Paolini - Lucrezia Stefanini	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Jasmine Paolini - Veronika Erjavec	2:1 ✺
WTA Wimbledon
08.07.26	Marta Kostyuk - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
06.07.26	Jasmine Paolini - Alexandra Eala	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Jasmine Paolini - Maria Sakkari	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWLWW
- Sorana Cirstea
WTA US Open
02.09.26	Diane Parry - Sorana Cirstea	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Julia Grabher - Sorana Cirstea	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
19.08.26	Sorana Cirstea - Jessica Pegula	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Sorana Cirstea - Anna Kalinskaya	Interrupted ✺
15.08.26	Sorana Cirstea - Nikola Bartunkova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWL?W

Latest Head to Head

WTA Dubai
23.02.24	Jasmine Paolini - Sorana Cirstea	2:0
WTA Roland Garros
30.05.23	Sorana Cirstea - Jasmine Paolini	1:2
WTA Portoroz
17.09.21	Jasmine Paolini - Sorana Cirstea	2:1

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