Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braga, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday


	Jay Clarke		Henrique Rocha

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.39	1.51	Watch
	2.45	1.57
	2.43	1.52	Watch
	2.36	1.55	Watch
	2.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.5)	1.53 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jay Clarke
38.5%

Henrique Rocha
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jay Clarke has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Henrique Rocha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jay Clarke than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (+3%)

Jay Clarke - Henrique Rocha Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Clarke is ranked ATP: 185. Rocha is ranked ATP: 171.

Recent performances by Clarke have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rocha is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Rocha may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rocha might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Rocha will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Henrique Rocha - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 62.42%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jay Clarke
ATP Challenger
23.09.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Jay Clarke	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Jay Clarke - Franco Agamenone	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Jay Clarke - Miguel Damas	2:0 ✺
19.09.25	Jay Clarke - Gabi Adrian Boitan	2:0 ✺
18.09.25	Jay Clarke - Amaury Raynel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWW
- Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Henrique Rocha - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Stefano Travaglia - Henrique Rocha	1:2 ✺
26.09.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Pedro Araujo - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWWW

Jay Clarke - Henrique Rocha: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide