Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - Final

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6
Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Henrique Rocha		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
			Watch
			Watch
	2	1.86
	1.86	1.86	Watch
			Watch
	1.84	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.67)	1.86 ↓ (2.03)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Henrique Rocha
49.7%

Vilius Gaubas
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Henrique Rocha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Henrique Rocha's form might have worsened.

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vilius Gaubas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Henrique Rocha, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vilius Gaubas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Henrique Rocha - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rocha (votes: 1 - 50%). Gaubas (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 Games - Gaubas (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rocha (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gaubas (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rocha is ranked ATP: 171. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 165.

Now, both players are in good form.

Gaubas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Henrique Rocha - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 54.86%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Vilius Gaubas - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.14%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger
27.09.25	Stefano Travaglia - Henrique Rocha	1:2 ✺
26.09.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Pedro Araujo - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Henrique Rocha	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWL
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
27.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Vilius Gaubas - Carlos Taberner	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Vilius Gaubas - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWWWL

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