Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Henrique Rocha		Jan Choinski

	1	2
			Watch
	1.5	2.42	Watch
	1.56	2.59
	1.48	2.56	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.55	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.58)	2.48 ↑ (2.29)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Henrique Rocha
61.9%

Jan Choinski
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Henrique Rocha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Henrique Rocha that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jan Choinski could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	0%	21.1%

Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rocha (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Choinski (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Henrique Rocha will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rocha is ranked ATP: 126. Choinski is ranked ATP: 117.

Rocha has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Choinski has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Rocha may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rocha might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Rocha won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Henrique Rocha - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 59.17%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Jan Choinski - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.83%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger
18.04.26	Roman Safiullin - Henrique Rocha	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	2:0 ✺
16.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Tom Gentzsch	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
31.03.26	Henrique Rocha - Marco Trungelliti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWL
- Jan Choinski
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Jan Choinski - Marc-Andrea Huesler	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Jan Choinski - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.03.26	Jan Choinski - Roman Safiullin	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Jan Choinski - Tiago Pereira	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
24.09.25	Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski	2:0
06.05.25	Jan Choinski - Henrique Rocha	2:0

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