Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia (Portugal), clay (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 November 2024, Monday


	Jelle Sels		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.6
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	2.29	1.64
	1.88	1.87	Watch
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.16	1.65	Watch
	2.1	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.66)	1.68 ↓ (2.08)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelle Sels
44.2%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelle Sels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jelle Sels's form might have worsened.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelle Sels than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jelle Sels, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Jelle Sels - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sels will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sels is ranked ATP: 292. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 314.

Sels is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Merida Aguilar is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sels could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jelle Sels
ATP Challenger
18.11.24	Martin Landaluce - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
10.11.24	Jelle Sels - Kilian Feldbausch	1:2 ✺
05.11.24	Joao Fonseca - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
04.11.24	Jelle Sels - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	1:2 ✺
03.11.24	Jelle Sels - Markus Molder	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
17.11.24	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Eric Vanshelboim	0:2 ✺
10.11.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
16.10.24	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrea Vavassori	0:2 ✺
15.10.24	Enrico Dalla Valle - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
14.10.24	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLLWW

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