Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Finals - Riyadh, hard

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday

Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2


	Jessica Pegula		Jasmine Paolini

	1	2
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.25	3.75
	1.27	4.09
	1.44	2.70	Watch
	1.3	3.64	Watch
	1.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.47)	3.53 ↑ (2.67)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jessica Pegula
72.8%

Jasmine Paolini
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jessica Pegula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jessica Pegula's performance.

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jasmine Paolini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jessica Pegula that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jasmine Paolini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.4%	0%	5.6%

Jessica Pegula - Jasmine Paolini Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -5.5 Games - Pegula (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jessica Pegula will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jessica Pegula will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Pegula (votes: 12 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pegula is ranked WTA: 6. Paolini is ranked WTA: 8.

Pegula is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Paolini has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pegula won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Jessica Pegula - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 64.45%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Jasmine Paolini - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.55%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jessica Pegula
WTA Finals
04.11.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Cori Gauff - Jessica Pegula	1:2 ✺
WTA Wuhan
12.10.25	Jessica Pegula - Cori Gauff	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula	1:2 ✺
09.10.25	Katerina Siniakova - Jessica Pegula	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWLWW
- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Finals
04.11.25	Cori Gauff - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
WTA Ningbo
18.10.25	Elena Rybakina - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Belinda Bencic - Jasmine Paolini	1:2 ✺
16.10.25	Veronika Kudermetova - Jasmine Paolini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
21.09.25	Jasmine Paolini - Jessica Pegula	2:0
WTA Montreal
10.08.23	Jessica Pegula - Jasmine Paolini	2:0
WTA Charleston
06.04.22	Jasmine Paolini - Jessica Pegula	0:2
WTA Indian Wells
10.10.21	Jasmine Paolini - Jessica Pegula	0:2
ATP Challenger
12.11.18	Jessica Pegula - Jasmine Paolini	2:0

Jessica Pegula - Jasmine Paolini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide