Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday


	Jessica Pegula		Marta Kostyuk

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.69	2.19
	1.72	2.27
	1.69	2.18	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.7	2.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.56)	2.22 ↓ (2.39)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jessica Pegula
56.7%

Marta Kostyuk
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jessica Pegula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Marta Kostyuk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pegula (votes: 1 - 50%). Kostyuk (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Jessica Pegula will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pegula is ranked WTA: 5. Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 23.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pegula won 3.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Kostyuk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Pegula won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Jessica Pegula - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 60.51%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jessica Pegula
WTA Madrid
24.04.26	Jessica Pegula - Katie Boulter	2:0 ✺
WTA Charleston
05.04.26	Jessica Pegula - Yulia Starodubtseva	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Jessica Pegula - Iva Jovic	0:2 ✺
03.04.26	Jessica Pegula - Diana Shnaider	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Jessica Pegula - Elisabaetta Cocciaretto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW
- Marta Kostyuk
WTA Madrid
24.04.26	Yulia Putintseva - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
WTA Rouen
19.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Veronika Podrez	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Tatjana Maria	0:2 ✺
17.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Ann Li	2:1 ✺
15.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Caty McNally	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Brisbane
10.01.26	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	0:2
WTA Beijing
01.10.25	Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula	1:2
WTA Miami
24.03.25	Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula	0:2
WTA San Diego
02.03.24	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	0:2
WTA Australian Open
19.01.23	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	2:0
WTA Cincinnati
17.08.22	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	2:1

Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide