Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Vitoria - Gasteiz, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday


	Jessika Ponchet		Katie Swan

	1	2
			Watch
	1.76	1.95
	1.76	1.98
	1.73	2.01	Watch
	1.75	1.96	Watch
	1.8	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.85)	1.96 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jessika Ponchet
52.7%

Katie Swan
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jessika Ponchet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Katie Swan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jessika Ponchet than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jessika Ponchet that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Katie Swan than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Katie Swan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Ponchet is ranked WTA: 146. Swan is ranked WTA: 740.

Recent performances by Ponchet have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Swan is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ponchet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ponchet won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Jessika Ponchet - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jessika Ponchet
ITF Tournaments
16.07.25	Jessika Ponchet - Anastasia Kulikova	2:0 ✺
WTA Wimbledon
24.06.25	Anouk Koevermans - Jessika Ponchet	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.06.25	Jessika Ponchet - Rebecca Marino	0:2 ✺
07.06.25	Jessika Ponchet - Linda Fruhvirtova	1:2 ✺
06.06.25	Mingge Xu - Jessika Ponchet	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLLW
- Katie Swan
ITF Tournaments
16.07.25	Nahia Berecoechea - Katie Swan	0:2 ✺
13.07.25	Viktoria Hruncakova - Katie Swan	0:2 ✺
12.07.25	Katie Swan - Jenny Duerst	2:0 ✺
11.07.25	Alina Granwehr - Katie Swan	0:2 ✺
10.07.25	Katie Swan - Anastasia Abbagnato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Australian Open
09.01.23	Jessika Ponchet - Katie Swan	2:0

Jessika Ponchet - Katie Swan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide