Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Buenos Aires - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Buenos Aires 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo		Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar

	1	2
			Watch
	1.35	2.92
	1.4	2.75
	1.35	2.94	Watch
	1.45	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.85)	2.82 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
67%

Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar
33%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo's performance.

Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo than the current prediction. (-22.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar than the current prediction. (+22.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo - Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Aguilar Cardozo will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Aguilar will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Aguilar Cardozo is ranked ATP: 598. Aguilar is ranked ATP: 609.

Aguilar Cardozo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aguilar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
ATP Challenger
11.01.26	Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo - Christopher Li	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.11.25	Juan Estevez - Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Felix Corwin - Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Maximo Zeitune - Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo	0:2 ✺
27.11.25	Francisco Tomas Geschwind - Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWW
- Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar
ATP Challenger
11.01.26	Thiago Cigarran - Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar	0:2 ✺
25.11.25	Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar - Christoph Negritu	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2 ✺
17.11.25	Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar - Tomas Martinez	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar - Ignacio Carou	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
ATP Challenger
30.10.26	Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo - Lautaro Midon	✺

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo - Juan Carlos Manuel Aguilar