Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bari, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Bari 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Juan Cruz Martin Manzano		Matthew Donald

	1	2
			Watch
	1.75	1.98	Watch
	1.74	1.98	Watch
	1.74	2	Watch
	1.77	2.07
	1.72	1.98	Watch
	1.74	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.75)	2 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
53.4%

Matthew Donald
46.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.7%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Matthew Donald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Cruz Martin Manzano than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano - Matthew Donald Predictions

Users Predictions: Juan Cruz Martin Manzano will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Martin Manzano is ranked ATP: 426., and Donald is ranked ATP: 460..

Both players enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Martin Manzano could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Matthew Donald - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 47.29%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
ATP Challenger
02.10.26	Enrico Dalla Valle - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	0:2 ✺
30.09.26	Juan Cruz Martin Manzano - Jay Clarke	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Matteo Sciahbasi - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	0:2 ✺
23.09.26	Lukas Neumayer - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	2:1 ✺
21.09.26	Juan Cruz Martin Manzano - Samuele Pieri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWWLW
- Matthew Donald
ATP Challenger
02.10.26	Matthew Donald - Martin Krumich	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Matthew Donald	Giustino L. Retired ✺
29.09.26	Olle Wallin - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Matthew Donald - Dimitris Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Matthew Donald - Carles Cordoba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 W?WWW

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano - Matthew Donald