Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bari, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday


	Lorenzo Giustino		Matthew Donald

	1	2
			Watch
	1.75	1.95
	1.71	2.02	Watch
	1.66	2.12	Watch
	1.8	2
	1.67	2.05	Watch
	1.71	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.52)	2.03 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Giustino
54.1%

Matthew Donald
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Giustino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Giustino's form might have worsened.

Matthew Donald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matthew Donald's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Giustino than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Giustino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matthew Donald, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Lorenzo Giustino - Matthew Donald Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Giustino will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Donald will win (votes: 11 - 91.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Donald: 76.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Donald (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Giustino is ranked ATP: 210., and Donald is ranked ATP: 460..

In recent outings, Giustino has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Donald shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Giustino could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Giustino - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 60.88%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Giustino
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Lorenzo Giustino - John Sperle	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.09.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Gerard Campana Lee	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Enrique Carrascosa Diaz	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Grigor Dimitrov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWWL
- Matthew Donald
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Olle Wallin - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Matthew Donald - Dimitris Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Matthew Donald - Carles Cordoba	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	Dali Blanch - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Matthew Donald - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLW

Lorenzo Giustino - Matthew Donald: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide