Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday


	Juan Manuel Cerundolo		Aleksandar Kovacevic

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.8	1.98	Watch
	1.57	2.42	Watch
	1.64	2.38
	1.6	2.32	Watch
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.59	2.4	Watch
	1.57	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.91)	2.28 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
57.9%

Aleksandar Kovacevic
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juan Manuel Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Juan Manuel Cerundolo's performance.

Aleksandar Kovacevic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aleksandar Kovacevic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Manuel Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Juan Manuel Cerundolo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aleksandar Kovacevic than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aleksandar Kovacevic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Aleksandar Kovacevic Predictions

Users Predictions: Aleksandar Kovacevic will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aleksandar Kovacevic will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 126. Kovacevic is ranked ATP: 77.

Cerundolo is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Kovacevic is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cerundolo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Aleksandar Kovacevic - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juan Manuel Cerundolo
ATP Madrid
22.04.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
21.04.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Thiago Seyboth Wild	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.04.25	Valentin Royer - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
15.04.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Max Houkes	2:0 ✺
13.04.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Joao Graca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLWW
- Aleksandar Kovacevic
ATP Houston
04.04.25	Jenson Brooksby - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:1 ✺
02.04.25	Corentin Denolly - Aleksandar Kovacevic	0:2 ✺
31.03.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Miomir Kecmanovic	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.03.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Damir Dzumhur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWLW

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