Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 4, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday


	Justin Engel		Max Alcala Gurri

	1	2
	1.8	1.87
	1.81	1.93
	1.87	1.87	Watch
	1.8	1.91
	1.8	1.9	Watch
	2.2	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.5)	1.85 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Justin Engel
49.6%

Max Alcala Gurri
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

62.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

64.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Justin Engel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Justin Engel's performance.

Max Alcala Gurri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Max Alcala Gurri might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Justin Engel than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Justin Engel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Max Alcala Gurri than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Max Alcala Gurri could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Justin Engel - Max Alcala Gurri Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Engel is ranked ATP: 346. Alcala Gurri is ranked ATP: 435.

Engel is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Alcala Gurri is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alcala Gurri will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Justin Engel
ITF Tournaments
22.04.25	Justin Engel - Andrea Guerrieri	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Justin Engel - Fabian Marozsan	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.04.25	Justin Engel - Pol Martin Tiffon	1:2 ✺
25.03.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Justin Engel	2:1 ✺
19.03.25	Denis Yevseyev - Justin Engel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLLLL
- Max Alcala Gurri
ITF Tournaments
22.04.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Matt Kleiman	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
12.04.25	Damir Dzumhur - Max Alcala Gurri	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.04.25	Elmer Moller - Max Alcala Gurri	2:0 ✺
31.03.25	Marko Topo - Max Alcala Gurri	0:2 ✺
30.03.25	Michiel De Krom - Max Alcala Gurri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLWW

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