Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Kei Nishikori		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.15	1.67	Watch
	2.1	1.7
	2.12	1.8
	2.01	1.79	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.28	1.65	Watch
	2.14	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.22)	1.72 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kei Nishikori
44.5%

Denis Shapovalov
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

54.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kei Nishikori has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kei Nishikori than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	0%	11.8%

Kei Nishikori - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Nishikori will win (votes: 14 - 87.5%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nishikori: 71.3% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kei Nishikori will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nishikori is ranked ATP: 64. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 30.

Nishikori is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Shapovalov is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Shapovalov could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Shapovalov will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Nishikori won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kei Nishikori
ATP Madrid
24.04.25	Aleksandar Vukic - Kei Nishikori	1:2 ✺
ATP Houston
03.04.25	Kei Nishikori - Christopher Eubanks	Nishikori K. retired ✺
01.04.25	Kei Nishikori - Mitchell Krueger	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.25	Kei Nishikori - Yoshihito Nishioka	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
15.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Kei Nishikori	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 W?W?L
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Denis Shapovalov	Shapovalov D. retired ✺
15.04.25	Gael Monfils - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.25	Marcos Giron - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
24.03.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 ??LLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hong Kong
31.12.24	Denis Shapovalov - Kei Nishikori	0:2
ATP Washington
02.08.18	Denis Shapovalov - Kei Nishikori	0:2
ATP Acapulco
27.02.18	Kei Nishikori - Denis Shapovalov	1:2

Kei Nishikori - Denis Shapovalov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide