Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phoenix (USA), hard - Semi-finals

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday


	Joao Fonseca		Kei Nishikori

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.38	3	Watch
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.33	3.14	Watch
	1.33	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.48)	3.08 ↑ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
69.6%

Kei Nishikori
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Joao Fonseca's performance.

Kei Nishikori has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kei Nishikori might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joao Fonseca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kei Nishikori than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kei Nishikori could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Joao Fonseca - Kei Nishikori Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Fonseca will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Nishikori will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 80. Nishikori is ranked ATP: 76.

Right away both players are in a satisfying form.

Fonseca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Fonseca will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Challenger
14.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
13.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
12.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Jack Draper - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
06.03.25	Jacob Fearnley - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLW
- Kei Nishikori
ATP Challenger
14.03.25	Kei Nishikori - Flavio Cobolli	2:1 ✺
13.03.25	Kei Nishikori - Mikhail Kukushkin	Kukushkin M. retired ✺
12.03.25	Luca Nardi - Kei Nishikori	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Kei Nishikori - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
05.03.25	Jaume Munar - Kei Nishikori	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 W?WLW

Joao Fonseca - Kei Nishikori: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide