Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Istanbul 2, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday


	Kenta Miyoshi		Mert Alkaya

	1	2
	1.53	2.35
	1.54	2.40
	1.59	2.39
	1.5	2.41	Watch
	1.52	2.25
	1.54	2.32	Watch
	1.54	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (2.09)	2.35 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kenta Miyoshi
60.4%

Mert Alkaya
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kenta Miyoshi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kenta Miyoshi's performance.

Mert Alkaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mert Alkaya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kenta Miyoshi than the current prediction. (-22.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kenta Miyoshi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (+22.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mert Alkaya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Kenta Miyoshi - Mert Alkaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Miyoshi is ranked ATP: 525. Alkaya is ranked ATP: 299.

Miyoshi is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alkaya has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alkaya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kenta Miyoshi
ATP Challenger
04.08.26	Kenta Miyoshi - Arda Azkara	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Hunter Heck - Kenta Miyoshi	0:2 ✺
02.08.26	Erik Arutiunian - Kenta Miyoshi	0:2 ✺
01.08.26	Kenta Miyoshi - Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine	1:2 ✺
31.07.26	Kenta Miyoshi - Vadym Ursu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWLW
- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
04.08.26	Saba Purtseladze - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
28.07.26	Mert Alkaya - Colin Sinclair	1:2 ✺
24.07.26	Luka Pavlovic - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	Akira Santillan - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
20.07.26	Mert Alkaya - Juan Pablo Ficovich	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLWW

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