Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Segovia, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2026, Friday


	Luka Pavlovic		Mert Alkaya

	1	2
			Watch
	1.80	1.91
	1.83	1.93	Watch
	1.83	2.05
	1.83	1.87	Watch
	1.82	2.01
	1.81	1.87	Watch
	1.80	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.83)	1.93 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luka Pavlovic
51.5%

Mert Alkaya
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luka Pavlovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Mert Alkaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luka Pavlovic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mert Alkaya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Luka Pavlovic - Mert Alkaya Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pavlovic will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Alkaya will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pavlovic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 278. Alkaya is ranked ATP: 309.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pavlovic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Luka Pavlovic - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Mert Alkaya - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
22.07.26	Yi Zhou - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Luka Pavlovic	1:2 ✺
14.07.26	Yanki Erel - Luka Pavlovic	2:0 ✺
09.07.26	Titouan Droguet - Luka Pavlovic	2:0 ✺
07.07.26	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Luka Pavlovic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLLW
- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
22.07.26	Akira Santillan - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
20.07.26	Mert Alkaya - Juan Pablo Ficovich	2:0 ✺
13.07.26	Chris Rodesch - Mert Alkaya	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.07.26	Sebastian Dominko - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Mert Alkaya - Carl Emil Overbeck	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLLL

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