Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday


	Khumoun Sultanov		Luca Castelnuovo

	1	2
			Watch
	1.72	2.00
	1.73	1.99	Watch
	1.7	2.04	Watch
	1.75	2.00
	1.71	1.99	Watch
	1.70	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.7)	2 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Khumoun Sultanov
53.7%

Luca Castelnuovo
46.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.1%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Khumoun Sultanov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Khumoun Sultanov than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Khumoun Sultanov - Luca Castelnuovo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sultanov is ranked ATP: 431., and Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 449..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Sultanov could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Sultanov has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Khumoun Sultanov - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.12%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Khumoun Sultanov
ATP Challenger
19.10.26	Saba Purtseladze - Khumoun Sultanov	0:2 ✺
17.10.26	Xiaoyin Yang - Khumoun Sultanov	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Khumoun Sultanov - Hunter Heck	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Enzo Aguiard - Khumoun Sultanov	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Khumoun Sultanov - Enzo Aguiard	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WWLLL
- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
19.10.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
18.10.26	Egor Pleshivtsev - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.10.26	Jamie Mackenzie - Luca Castelnuovo	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
05.10.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Akira Santillan	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
22.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WW?LL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
22.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Khumoun Sultanov	2:0

Khumoun Sultanov - Luca Castelnuovo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide