Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Guangzhou 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong		Luca Castelnuovo

	1	2
			Watch
	2.05	1.65
	2	1.72	Watch
	2.06	1.68	Watch
	1.97	1.69
	1.95	1.74	Watch
	2	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.72)	1.7 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
45.9%

Luca Castelnuovo
54.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.5%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's form might have worsened.

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luca Castelnuovo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Leong is ranked ATP: 424., and Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 455..

In recent outings, Leong has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Castelnuovo is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Leong could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Leong has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:4 (averaging 0:2 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.51%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
ATP Challenger
18.10.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Fumin Jiang	Jiang F. Retired ✺
07.10.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	2:0 ✺
06.10.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Rawat Sidharth	2:1 ✺
28.09.26	Marat Sharipov - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Thomas John Fancutt - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 ?LWLW
- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
18.10.26	Egor Pleshivtsev - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.10.26	Jamie Mackenzie - Luca Castelnuovo	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
05.10.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Akira Santillan	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
22.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Elias Ymer - Luca Castelnuovo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 W?LLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.07.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2
10.02.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo