Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham 4, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 July 2026, Tuesday


	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong		Luca Castelnuovo

	1	2
			Watch
	2.40	1.50	Watch
	2.38	1.55	Watch
	2.43	1.58
	2.29	1.55	Watch
	2.40	1.56	Watch
	2.30	1.55	Watch
	2.35	1.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.1)	1.54 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
39.5%

Luca Castelnuovo
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Leong will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Castelnuovo will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Leong is ranked ATP: 547. Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 410.

Leong has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Castelnuovo is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Castelnuovo is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leong won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.73%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
ITF Tournaments
19.06.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Matthew Dellavedova	0:2 ✺
18.06.26	Alberto Lim - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	1:2 ✺
17.06.26	Shintaro Imai - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	0:2 ✺
16.06.26	Kai-I Wang - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	0:2 ✺
10.06.26	Thanapet Chanta - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWWL
- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
28.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Gabriel Ghetu	0:2 ✺
22.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Franco Agamenone	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Faris Zakaryia	2:0 ✺
ATP Stuttgart
06.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.02.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide