Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday


	Learner Tien		Hubert Hurkacz

	1	2
	1.53	2.50	Watch
	1.56	2.40
	1.56	2.43	Watch
	1.52	2.47	Watch
	1.78	2.04
	1.50	2.65	Watch
	1.55	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.87)	2.41 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
60.5%

Hubert Hurkacz
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Learner Tien's performance.

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hubert Hurkacz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Learner Tien that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hubert Hurkacz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	0%	23.1%

Learner Tien - Hubert Hurkacz Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Tien will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Hurkacz will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tien: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Learner Tien will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 15., and Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 41..

In recent outings, Tien has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Hurkacz is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Tien could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tien holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Learner Tien - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Hubert Hurkacz - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Laver Cup
27.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Flavio Cobolli - Learner Tien	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
19.09.26	Jiri Lehecka - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
07.09.26	Karen Khachanov - Learner Tien	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLWL
- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Chengdu
29.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Lloyd Harris - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
26.09.26	Martin Damm - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
24.09.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWWW

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