Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday


	Hubert Hurkacz		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.60	2.30
	1.64	2.22	Watch
	1.66	2.28	Watch
	1.6	2.35
	1.63	2.3	Watch
	1.63	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.6)	2.26 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 24.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
58.1%

Denis Shapovalov
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Denis Shapovalov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hurkacz: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Hurkacz (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Hubert Hurkacz (1.62) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hubert Hurkacz will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Hurkacz (votes: 4 - 80%). Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 46., and Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 50..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hurkacz won 4.

Both players look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Hurkacz has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 12:6 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Hubert Hurkacz - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 59.18%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.82%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Chengdu
27.09.26	Lloyd Harris - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
26.09.26	Martin Damm - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
24.09.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Ben Shelton - Hubert Hurkacz	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Damir Dzumhur - Hubert Hurkacz	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLW
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Chengdu
27.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Vit Kopriva - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Ben Shelton - Denis Shapovalov	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	Denis Shapovalov - Luca Van Assche	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
01.06.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	3:1
ATP Australian Open
20.01.23	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	3:2
ATP Miami
29.03.21	Denis Shapovalov - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2
ATP Dubai
17.03.21	Denis Shapovalov - Hubert Hurkacz	2:0
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.19	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
13.03.19	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	2:1

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