Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Troyes (France), clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 July 2024, Thursday

Referee: Vasseneix A. (Fra)


	Lilian Marmousez		Nicolas Alvarez Varona

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.52	2.38	Watch
	1.58	2.42
	1.53	2.42	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.43	Watch
	1.52	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.97)	2.41 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lilian Marmousez
61.1%

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lilian Marmousez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lilian Marmousez's performance.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Alvarez Varona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lilian Marmousez than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lilian Marmousez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Alvarez Varona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Lilian Marmousez - Nicolas Alvarez Varona Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Marmousez will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Alvarez Varona will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marmousez: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Marmousez is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Alvarez Varona is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alvarez Varona could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Marmousez will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Marmousez won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lilian Marmousez
ATP Challenger
03.07.24	Lilian Marmousez - Sandro Kopp	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.06.24	Lorenzo Giustino - Lilian Marmousez	2:0 ✺
28.06.24	Lilian Marmousez - Florent Bax	2:0 ✺
27.06.24	Lilian Marmousez - Rodrigo Alujas	2:0 ✺
26.06.24	Maxime Chazal - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWWW
- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ATP Challenger
03.07.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Alvaro Guillen Meza	2:1 ✺
27.06.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
26.06.24	Maks Kasnikowski - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	0:2 ✺
19.06.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Edas Butvilas	Alvarez Varona N. retired ✺
03.06.24	Henrique Rocha - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLW?L

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
27.11.20	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Lilian Marmousez	2:1

Lilian Marmousez - Nicolas Alvarez Varona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide