Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 2, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday


	Lorenzo Carboni		Andrey Chepelev

	1	2
			Watch
	1.53	2.53
	1.43	2.58	Watch
	1.4	2.63
	1.47	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.65)	2.56 ↑ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Carboni
63.7%

Andrey Chepelev
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Carboni's performance.

Andrey Chepelev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrey Chepelev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Carboni that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Chepelev than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrey Chepelev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lorenzo Carboni - Andrey Chepelev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carboni is ranked ATP: 463. Chepelev is ranked ATP: 430.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Chepelev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carboni might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carboni won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Carboni - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.66%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Carboni
ITF Tournaments
08.04.26	Dakotah Bobo - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Edoardo Cherie Ligniere - Lorenzo Carboni	Cherie Ligniere E. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
30.03.26	Francesco Forti - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	Jacopo Vasami - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
23.03.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Francesco Forti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 W?LWL
- Andrey Chepelev
ITF Tournaments
08.04.26	Felix Balshaw - Andrey Chepelev	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Alex Lapsansky - Andrey Chepelev	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Alberto Bronzetti - Andrey Chepelev	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.03.26	Francesco Forti - Andrey Chepelev	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.03.26	Peter Buldorini - Andrey Chepelev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
14.04.25	Andrey Chepelev - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0

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