Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Perugia - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 1 June 2026, Monday


	Lorenzo Carboni		Jelle Sels

	1	2
			Watch
	1.27	3.4	Watch
	1.29	3.74
	1.27	3.41	Watch
	1.29	3.5
	1.29	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.35)	3.46 ↑ (2.91)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Carboni
73%

Jelle Sels
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Jelle Sels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Carboni that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelle Sels than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jelle Sels could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lorenzo Carboni - Jelle Sels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carboni is ranked ATP: 477. Sels is ranked ATP: 450.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Carboni may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Carboni is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carboni won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Carboni
ATP Challenger
31.05.26	Li Tu - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
20.05.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Lorenzo Carboni	2:1 ✺
18.05.26	Francesco Forti - Lorenzo Carboni	2:1 ✺
17.05.26	Samuel Vincent Ruggeri - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2 ✺
11.05.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Laslo Djere	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLWL
- Jelle Sels
ATP Challenger
31.05.26	Edoardo Betti - Jelle Sels	0:2 ✺
25.05.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Jelle Sels	2:1 ✺
24.05.26	Yanis Ghazouani Durand - Jelle Sels	0:2 ✺
17.05.26	Federico Iannaccone - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
11.05.26	Martin Damm - Jelle Sels	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWL?

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
27.02.25	Jelle Sels - Lorenzo Carboni	Sels J. retired

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