Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Maia 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Lorenzo Giustino		Michael Vrbensky

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.34	3.00
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.34	3	Watch
	1.35	3.15
	1.34	2.99	Watch
	1.33	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.33)	3.07 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Giustino
69.7%

Michael Vrbensky
30.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Giustino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Michael Vrbensky has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Giustino than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Vrbensky than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Lorenzo Giustino - Michael Vrbensky Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Giustino will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Vrbensky will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Giustino is ranked ATP: 216., and Vrbensky is ranked ATP: 754..

Giustino is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Vrbensky have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Vrbensky may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Giustino is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Giustino has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Giustino
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Lorenzo Giustino	1:2 ✺
08.10.26	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Lorenzo Giustino	2:1 ✺
06.10.26	Christian Langmo - Lorenzo Giustino	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Matthew Donald	Giustino L. Retired ✺
29.09.26	Lorenzo Giustino - John Sperle	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLW?W
- Michael Vrbensky
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Michael Vrbensky - Raul Brancaccio	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Patrick Schoen - Michael Vrbensky	0:2 ✺
11.10.26	Michael Vrbensky - Olle Wallin	Wallin O. Retired ✺
14.09.26	Michael Vrbensky - Kai Wehnelt	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Daniel Elahi Galan - Michael Vrbensky	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WW?L?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.01.24	Lorenzo Giustino - Michael Vrbensky	2:1
01.01.24	Lorenzo Giustino - Michael Vrbensky	2:1

Lorenzo Giustino - Michael Vrbensky