Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Gstaad, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 July 2026, Monday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
	1.40	3.00	Watch
	1.42	2.80
	1.42	2.88	Watch
	1.44	3.00
	1.45	2.63	Watch
	1.43	2.80	Watch
	1.36	3.23	Watch
	1.35	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.44)	2.91 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
67.3%

Joel Schwaerzler
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Lorenzo Sonego - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Sonego will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schwaerzler: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 2 - 50%). Schwaerzler (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.33) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Schwaerzler (1.67) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Schwaerzler (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 69. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 177.

Sonego has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Schwaerzler's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Schwaerzler may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sonego is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Lorenzo Sonego	3:1 ✺
02.07.26	Gabriel Diallo - Lorenzo Sonego	2:3 ✺
30.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	3:1 ✺
ATP Mallorca
23.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Miomir Kecmanovic	1:2 ✺
21.06.26	Mariano Navone - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWLW
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
07.07.26	Federico Bondioli - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
22.06.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.06.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Matej Dodig	1:2 ✺
28.05.26	Pol Martin Tiffon - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
26.05.26	Enrico Dalla Valle - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW

Lorenzo Sonego - Joel Schwaerzler: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide