Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Poznan - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Faris Zakaryia

	1	2
			Watch
	1.40	2.65
	1.38	2.75
	1.43	2.95
	1.41	2.68	Watch
	1.40	2.75
	1.41	2.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.54)	2.75 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
66.1%

Faris Zakaryia
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Faris Zakaryia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Faris Zakaryia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castelnuovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Faris Zakaryia than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Faris Zakaryia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Castelnuovo - Faris Zakaryia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 354. Zakaryia is ranked ATP: 508.

The current form of both players is below expectations.

Zakaryia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Castelnuovo might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Faris Zakaryia - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.31%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Stuttgart
06.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
25.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Semen Pankin	0:2 ✺
05.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Ognjen Milic	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW
- Faris Zakaryia
ATP Challenger
07.06.26	Faris Zakaryia - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.05.26	David Eichenseher - Faris Zakaryia	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Karim Ibrahim - Faris Zakaryia	0:2 ✺
06.05.26	Faris Zakaryia - Francisco Faria	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Alibek Kachmazov - Faris Zakaryia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL

Luca Castelnuovo - Faris Zakaryia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide