Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shenzhen 4 - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Duck Hee Lee

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.32	3	Watch
	1.35	3.14
	1.07	7.23	Watch
	1.34	3.09	Watch
	1.44	2.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.56)	3.83 ↑ (2.3)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
74.6%

Duck Hee Lee
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Duck Hee Lee has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Duck Hee Lee might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castelnuovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duck Hee Lee than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Duck Hee Lee could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Castelnuovo - Duck Hee Lee Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 409. Lee is ranked ATP: 720.

Castelnuovo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lee has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Castelnuovo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Castelnuovo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
22.09.25	Lloyd Harris - Luca Castelnuovo	Castelnuovo L. retired ✺
22.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Khumoun Sultanov	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
20.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Petr Bar-Biryukov	2:0 ✺
19.09.25	Omar Jasika - Luca Castelnuovo	Jasika O. retired ✺
18.09.25	Denis Yevseyev - Luca Castelnuovo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 ?WW?W
- Duck Hee Lee
ITF Tournaments
17.09.25	Alexandr Binda - Duck Hee Lee	2:1 ✺
10.09.25	Jaesung Choe - Duck Hee Lee	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Seungmin Park - Duck Hee Lee	Park S. retired ✺
02.09.25	Duck Hee Lee - Xing Dao Chen	0:2 ✺
29.08.25	Sam Ryan Ziegann - Duck Hee Lee	Lee D. H. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LL?L?

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
27.02.25	Duck Hee Lee - Luca Castelnuovo	1:2
06.09.23	Luca Castelnuovo - Duck Hee Lee	1:2
05.07.23	Luca Castelnuovo - Duck Hee Lee	0:2

Luca Castelnuovo - Duck Hee Lee: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide