Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 September 2025, Wednesday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Marat Sharipov

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3	1.34	Watch
	3.05	1.32	Watch
	3.3	1.35
	1.78	1.97	Watch
	2.06	1.65	Watch
	2.6	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.6)	1.49 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
35.3%

Marat Sharipov
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

64.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Marat Sharipov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marat Sharipov than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Luca Castelnuovo - Marat Sharipov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 501. Sharipov is ranked ATP: 265.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Castelnuovo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sharipov will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Marat Sharipov - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 64.36%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
08.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Ye Cong Mo	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Yuichiro Inui	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Filip Peliwo - Luca Castelnuovo	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Kaichi Uchida	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWLL
- Marat Sharipov
ATP Challenger
08.09.25	Marat Sharipov - Taro Daniel	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Marat Sharipov - Tristan Boyer	Canceled ✺
03.09.25	Oliver Crawford - Marat Sharipov	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Marat Sharipov	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Marat Sharipov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 W?LLW

Luca Castelnuovo - Marat Sharipov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide