Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Miyazaki, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 April 2026, Thursday


	Ognjen Milic		Blake Ellis

	1	2
	1.57	2.25
	1.54	2.31	Watch
	1.54	2.58
	1.5	2.41	Watch
	1.53	2.38
	1.54	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (2.03)	2.38 ↑ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ognjen Milic
60.7%

Blake Ellis
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ognjen Milic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ognjen Milic's performance.

Blake Ellis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Blake Ellis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ognjen Milic than the current prediction. (-20.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ognjen Milic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blake Ellis than the current prediction. (+20.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Blake Ellis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ognjen Milic - Blake Ellis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Milic is ranked ATP: 425. Ellis is ranked ATP: 595.

Milic is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ellis's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ognjen Milic
ATP Challenger
02.04.26	Yi Zhou - Ognjen Milic	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Carl Emil Overbeck - Ognjen Milic	0:2 ✺
23.03.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Ognjen Milic	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
04.03.26	Kerem Yilmaz - Ognjen Milic	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Ognjen Milic - Faris Zakaryia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWLWW
- Blake Ellis
ATP Challenger
02.04.26	Blake Ellis - Maximus Jones	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Blake Ellis - Naoya Honda	2:1 ✺
23.03.26	Blake Ellis - Soon Woo Kwon	0:2 ✺
11.02.26	Li Tu - Blake Ellis	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Blake Ellis - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLLW

Ognjen Milic - Blake Ellis: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide