Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 3, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 June 2025, Tuesday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Shintaro Imai

	1	2
	2.05	1.65
	1.99	1.76
			Watch
	2	1.73
	2.01	1.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.82)	1.71 ↓ (1.89)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
46%

Shintaro Imai
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

47%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Shintaro Imai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Castelnuovo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Imai than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shintaro Imai, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 668. Imai is ranked ATP: 501.

Castelnuovo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Imai has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Castelnuovo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castelnuovo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Castelnuovo - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.01%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ITF Tournaments
22.06.25	Jie Cui - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
21.06.25	Takuya Kumasaka - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
19.06.25	Woobin Shin - Luca Castelnuovo	Shin W. retired ✺
18.06.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Kasidit Samrej	2:1 ✺
18.06.25	Linang Xiao - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WW?WW
- Shintaro Imai
ITF Tournaments
19.06.25	Jie Cui - Shintaro Imai	2:0 ✺
18.06.25	Thanapet Chanta - Shintaro Imai	1:2 ✺
18.06.25	Nick Chappell - Shintaro Imai	Chappell N. retired ✺
03.06.25	Shintaro Imai - Thanapet Chanta	Imai S. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
06.05.25	Zhe Li - Shintaro Imai	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LW??L

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
29.08.24	Luca Castelnuovo - Shintaro Imai	2:0

Luca Castelnuovo - Shintaro Imai: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide