Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Helsinki (Finland), hard (indoor) - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 November 2024, Friday


	Luca Nardi		Jan Choinski

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.72	2
	1.73	1.99	Watch
	1.79	2.1
	1.79	2.07	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.75	1.99	Watch
	1.73	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.61)	2.01 ↓ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
53.3%

Jan Choinski
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Nardi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jan Choinski, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Luca Nardi - Jan Choinski Predictions

Users Predictions: Luca Nardi will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 102. Choinski is ranked ATP: 185.

Two players are playing changeable.

Choinski could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Nardi - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.58%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
07.11.24	Luca Nardi - August Holmgren	2:0 ✺
06.11.24	Luca Nardi - Goncalo Oliveira	Oliveira G. retired ✺
30.10.24	Luca Nardi - Dino Prizmic	0:2 ✺
15.10.24	Luca Nardi - Javier Barranco Cosano	Nardi L. retired ✺
ATP Shanghai
02.10.24	Luca Nardi - Alexandre Muller	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 W?L?L
- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
07.11.24	Jan Choinski - Joao Fonseca	2:1 ✺
05.11.24	Sandro Kopp - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
15.10.24	Andrea Vavassori - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
11.10.24	Daniel Elahi Galan - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
10.10.24	Jan Choinski - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLLW

Luca Nardi - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide