Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Olbia, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Olbia 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Luca Nardi		August Holmgren

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.87	1.83
	1.89	1.86	Watch
	1.89	1.79	Watch
	1.94	1.89
	1.85	1.83	Watch
	1.85	1.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.24)	1.83 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
49.4%

August Holmgren
50.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Nardi's performance.

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and August Holmgren might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Luca Nardi - August Holmgren Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nardi will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Holmgren will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nardi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 251., and Holmgren is ranked ATP: 236..

Holmgren has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Holmgren may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Holmgren holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Nardi has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:1 (averaging 2:0.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Nardi - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.09%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

August Holmgren - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 58.91%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
05.10.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.26	Luca Nardi - Federico Cina	Nardi L. Retired ✺
ATP Umag
11.07.26	Luca Nardi - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
24.06.26	Luca Nardi - Otto Virtanen	0:2 ✺
22.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 L?LLW
- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
06.10.26	August Holmgren - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
02.10.26	August Holmgren - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	August Holmgren - Andrea Guerrieri	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Benjamin Bonzi - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	August Holmgren - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.11.24	Luca Nardi - August Holmgren	2:0
15.11.23	August Holmgren - Luca Nardi	1:2

Luca Nardi - August Holmgren