Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mouilleron-Le-Captif, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Lucas Poullain		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
			Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.2	1.57	Watch
	2.37	1.53	Watch
	2.35	1.61
	2.27	1.56	Watch
	2.2	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.44)	1.57 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucas Poullain
40.8%

Joel Schwaerzler
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

62.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Poullain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Lucas Poullain - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Poullain will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Schwaerzler (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Poullain is ranked ATP: 334., and Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 185..

Each of the two players is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Schwaerzler may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Schwaerzler is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Lucas Poullain - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.91%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Joel Schwaerzler - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 62.09%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Poullain
ATP Challenger
30.09.26	Lucas Poullain - Remy Bertola	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Mark Lajal - Lucas Poullain	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
23.09.26	Diogo Morais - Lucas Poullain	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Lucas Poullain - Clement Chidekh	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	David Jorda Sanchis - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWLLW
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
01.10.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Harry Wendelken	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Alberto Barroso Campos - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
22.09.26	Maxime Chazal - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Luca Potenza - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Max Basing - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLLW

Lucas Poullain - Joel Schwaerzler: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide