Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Quito, clay - Final

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Luisina Giovannini		Polona Hercog

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.11	1.65	Watch
	2.31	1.66
	2.24	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.19	1.65	Watch
	2.3	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.32)	1.63 ↑ (1.54)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luisina Giovannini
42.5%

Polona Hercog
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luisina Giovannini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Polona Hercog has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luisina Giovannini than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luisina Giovannini that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polona Hercog than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Polona Hercog could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luisina Giovannini - Polona Hercog Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Giovannini (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Hercog (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Hercog (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Giovannini (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Hercog (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Giovannini is ranked WTA: 281. Hercog is ranked WTA: 672.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Hercog might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Hercog will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luisina Giovannini
ATP Challenger
06.12.25	Luisina Giovannini - Despina Papamichail	2:0 ✺
05.12.25	Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez - Luisina Giovannini	0:2 ✺
03.12.25	Luisina Giovannini - Maja Chwalinska	2:0 ✺
01.12.25	Luisina Giovannini - Valentina Mediorreal Arias	2:1 ✺
27.11.25	Laura Samsonova - Luisina Giovannini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWWL
- Polona Hercog
ATP Challenger
06.12.25	Leolia Jeanjean - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
05.12.25	Elvina Kalieva - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
03.12.25	Polona Hercog - Oleksandra Oliynykova	2:1 ✺
01.12.25	Sara Sorribes Tormo - Polona Hercog	1:2 ✺
24.11.25	Polona Hercog - Jasmin Ortenzi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWWWL

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