Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Quito, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday


	Elvina Kalieva		Polona Hercog

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.46	1.48	Watch
	2.49	1.55
	2.35	1.54	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.39	1.51	Watch
	2.42	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2)	1.5 ↓ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elvina Kalieva
37.6%

Polona Hercog
62.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elvina Kalieva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Elvina Kalieva's form might have worsened.

Polona Hercog has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Polona Hercog's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elvina Kalieva than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elvina Kalieva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polona Hercog than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Polona Hercog, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Elvina Kalieva - Polona Hercog Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kalieva (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Hercog (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kalieva is ranked WTA: 206. Hercog is ranked WTA: 672.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Hercog may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hercog is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kalieva won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elvina Kalieva
ATP Challenger
03.12.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Elvina Kalieva	0:2 ✺
01.12.25	Elvina Kalieva - Miriam Bianca Bulgaru	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
19.11.25	Elvina Kalieva - Dalayna Hewitt	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Elvina Kalieva - Romina Dominguez Garcia	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Elvina Kalieva - Marina Stakusic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWLWL
- Polona Hercog
ATP Challenger
03.12.25	Polona Hercog - Oleksandra Oliynykova	2:1 ✺
01.12.25	Sara Sorribes Tormo - Polona Hercog	1:2 ✺
24.11.25	Polona Hercog - Jasmin Ortenzi	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Polona Hercog - Oleksandra Oliynykova	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Panna Udvardy - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
15.10.21	Polona Hercog - Elvina Kalieva	0:2

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