Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mexico City, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Luka Pavlovic		Stefano Napolitano

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	2	1.7	Watch
	2.19	1.75
	2.15	1.63	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.06	1.68	Watch
	1.71	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.71)	1.73 ↓ (2)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luka Pavlovic
45.8%

Stefano Napolitano
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luka Pavlovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luka Pavlovic's form might have worsened.

Stefano Napolitano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stefano Napolitano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Napolitano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 200. Napolitano is ranked ATP: 302.

Pavlovic is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Napolitano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pavlovic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pavlovic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Luka Pavlovic - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 53.91%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Luka Pavlovic - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Luka Pavlovic - Aidan Mayo	2:1 ✺
07.04.26	Luka Pavlovic - Facundo Mena	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Andrew Fenty - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWLW
- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Stefano Napolitano - Tristan Schoolkate	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Matias Soto - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Andres Martin - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Facundo Mena	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
05.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano	0:2
07.04.25	Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano	2:0

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