Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Trieste, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 July 2025, Thursday


	Lukas Neumayer		Andrea Collarini

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.57	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.65	2.25	Watch
	1.87	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.87)	2.09 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukas Neumayer
55.2%

Andrea Collarini
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukas Neumayer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lukas Neumayer's performance.

Andrea Collarini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrea Collarini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukas Neumayer than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukas Neumayer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Collarini than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrea Collarini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Lukas Neumayer - Andrea Collarini Predictions

Users Predictions: Lukas Neumayer will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Neumayer is ranked ATP: 169. Collarini is ranked ATP: 225.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Collarini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Lukas Neumayer - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Andrea Collarini - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukas Neumayer
ATP Challenger
09.07.25	Federico Agustin Gomez - Lukas Neumayer	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
23.06.25	Zachary Svajda - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Lukas Neumayer - Daniel Rincon	1:2 ✺
17.06.25	Lukas Neumayer - Stefano Travaglia	2:0 ✺
04.06.25	Jurij Rodionov - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLWL
- Andrea Collarini
ATP Challenger
09.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Matteo Gigante	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Michelangelo Zvech Flaborea	2:0 ✺
01.07.25	Toby Alex Kodat - Andrea Collarini	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
23.06.25	Andrea Collarini - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLL

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