Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cap Cana, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday


	Mackenzie McDonald		Luca Nardi

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.66	2.09
	1.66	2.09
	1.67	2.1
	1.69	2.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.66)	2.09 ↑ (2.08)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mackenzie McDonald
55.6%

Luca Nardi
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mackenzie McDonald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Mackenzie McDonald - Luca Nardi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

McDonald is ranked ATP: 126. Nardi is ranked ATP: 135.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

McDonald may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Mackenzie McDonald - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.65%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Luca Nardi - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.35%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Cameron Norrie - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Trevor Svajda - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
02.03.26	Vitaliy Sachko - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
21.02.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWWWL
- Luca Nardi
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Luca Nardi - Trevor Svajda	1:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
22.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Marco Trungelliti - Luca Nardi	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.02.26	Arthur Bouquier - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
09.02.26	Jerome Kym - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLW

Mackenzie McDonald - Luca Nardi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide